小编看到了极其天气怎么样预报造成的美洲大自然气和供电局销售卖场（诸如德克萨斯州）显示2次符合故障率，什么地方的批发商、需求量和价位稳定平衡遭受到的冲击，管线和汽化石油气大自然气用于出口的极大减少在欧洲诞生了直营发应。 随天气怎么样预报新闻事件，欧洲能源开发现行政策因北京气候发展现象而会发生的转变，造成的欧洲大自然气和汽化石油气大自然气销售卖场拥有不判判定。
是为了处理这个变换，路孚特和 RBAC 将套新款的天汽情况情景模拟网各种先天汽和煤气先天汽基本建设项目统计假设、方案、生产成本和干涉方向的海量变换纳为了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®世界十大先天汽预測剖析系统性™，对于世界十大先天汽股票市场上展开了进一步和主客观的模拟网剖析。 本上报详细完整分享了美利坚共和国、拉丁美洲和大洋洲股票市场上连续变换的信息，有所帮助您为发展的其它动荡不安天汽情况搞好安排并渡过艰难险阻。
简单：
二零二零年春季，RBAC和路孚特处次合伙建设了若干场地，致力于就是把出现的2020/202在一年寒冷的春夏季的气候和各种非人工气行业动态的。 旨在合伙刊登的非人工气发展潜力应响了行业内的很大程度上关注度，然而2020/202在一年的实际上寒冷的春夏季的应响要比预计的场地大上许多。 因为北级寒流模似的結果更非常严重，损伤力更具。 储气量被变低到危害的低的水平，全国非人工气行业在202在一年尽快升温快。渐渐2021/明年寒冷的春夏季的临到，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC颁布202在一年全国一年期非人工气和煤气非人工气行业构想，为北半球就是把出现的供暖时间段打造有实际价值的关联性。
RBAC 专业技术团队运用 G2M2® 研发了总金额36 个月大的估计，运用行业股票市场常规面客观因素和季节比较敏物质性思考空间区域行业股票市场直接的互连。该专业技术团队运用19种消费场景来监测季节对全球性大自然气平衡点的不良影响，或者美洲、法国和中美洲交通枢纽的的价格。
此贴期望转发2021年发展趋势的重点东西，并将2021年与之前的预測开始客观存在的比和研究分析，借以提升 自己对市场中模拟机的了解。
亨利港（Henry Hub）价格多少对汽化先天气进出口的影响到
当大家们回忆2020-202一年Refinitiv-RBAC全.球短期的当然气和夜化当然气市场的发展规划（于2021年15月发过）时，这里面主要的个人见解主要包括以內几种工作方面：
• 用于东季或严寒地区供需或者是亨利港 2020 年第 4 一年度和 2021 年第 1 一年度收费的重要动力元素之五。俄罗斯用于东季或严寒地区供需强劲有力，或者会使非煤气停留在在国内，而不算算作液化石油气非煤气运到国外市场。
• 放前 COVID 中国中，种植商将被强迫在管理系统短期种植这方面更加的灵活多变，而不会只为实现了更乐观的发展而要花太多备用金。
• 澳洲和中美洲的我国所需都依赖关系于夜化天然水气进口货，但对范围费用的作用有差异 。
如果与实计前提优于其研究方案的20个天氣前景（会根据过来20年的数剧）没有幅宽上震荡的前提。考虑到类别的有效市场理论不极致，無法带动所产生G2M2®世界上天然的气予测浅析的现货交易定价攀升、需求量的冲击和供货下降，以相似实计产生的秋季天氣条件。
2021 年 2 月，美国的前提通常如此这般（请参阅右图，请需要注意右上图的纵大地坐标轴的价格是左上图的两倍）。今年检测结果中借助的细节、信息和虚拟仿真条件尚未有效需要考虑美国基本出产地电网和纯天然的气污水管等的冬天开始准备过低各种从对煤气纯天然的气出口到构成作用的已损坏的因素。
条形图1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）价额和美利坚液化石油气天然植物气出口到预测分析
数据表格 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利核心市场价和新西兰液化石油气具有气出入口预估
该论述的2021-明年回顾出现，明年亨利港的年均衡定价上升时至5.50英镑/MmBtu左右时间，而本年的报告格式为3.50英镑/MmBtu。 除此之外，与本年的预估对立，近日国外煤气非液化石油气出口型保守估计正常运行相似100%的生产能力。
一般的感觉，近年来（加拿大）内部自然植物气定价的继续上涨，汽化自然植物气出口型将变少，鉴于内部领域将诞生更广的利益发展地方。 当然，情形并不尽管，鉴于亚洲地区自然植物气和汽化自然植物气定价爆涨，产生需求，一同美国冬天来到之计，储放质量方向高于日常质量方向，从而美国领域的利益地方能够会更广。
全.球非燃气和汽化非燃气房价
犹豫世界各国生产商局限不断影响力绿色气和汽化绿色气市场中，通过利用G2M2®的不同天气预报情景对话，该数据精准预测出加拿大汽化绿色气产品出口的收费差高于5澳元/MMBtu。
统计图3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的价
英国具有气的市场 - TTF 价格win7驱动客观因素
西方贮存：
是警醒在季节或失败酷热的春夏季，南美洲的储气库仓库一致对于来这类安全。但，创最高记录低值的南美洲西南部底下存贮仓库给TTF售价获得了惊人的上升的压力。 在前往 5 年终，从 NWE 存贮的季节导入的非人工气量从 2018-19 年和气季节的 210 TWh 逐年转型 2017-18 年愈来愈非常寒冷的季节的 400 TWh。2020/202在一年季节相近合适时候环境，但存贮质量增涨了380 TWh。
数据图表 4 - 非洲数据存储库存管理总体水平
2020/二零二半年时间内东季，在北美洲需求分析在超时阴冷的东季曾加，煤气石油气自然气国外进口商供货提高，致使煤气石油气自然气国外进口商量优于健康层次。煤气石油气自然气的发送给量为20Bcm（220 TWh），最低前半年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 月底，非洲存储空间库存量为 160 TWh 或发热量的 30%，为上前 5 年（2016-2020 年）的最少平行，凸显大于 64% 的四年的平均平行。还在今年注气网络延迟了整整两个月左右。终究会2月才展开注气，而从历吏上看，注气是在4日份展开的。
数据图表 5 – 德国西中部部地埋储气库条件
实验技术团队运用的 G2M2 3d模型来源于 19 种天气情况前景，其中包括多种差异差异的供需推测。这样设计的然而表面，保守估计今年初冬天时（-10月-7月）欧州东北部地区每次大约230 TWh的天然的气将被导出来。
在2021时间内-2030年的冬季，该实体模型推测储存含量约为 135 TWh 或储存数量的 25%。不同之处之余，5年的峰值数值为35%。预测下一年英国西南的地区储存货存含量将重新不超过5年峰值含量，也许有一天202四年底也能追上5年峰值含量。
图形 6 - G2M2 国外存储器库存商品技术
从土耳其进口商：
也许拉丁美洲大一部分政府全都在主动性地实现能源技术转型期，但其绿色气的市场仍情况严重依耐绿色气和汽化绿色气的国外进口，已达到全球的需求。步入欧洲共同体政府的绿色气关键确认土耳其、澳大利亚和北非的管并且 来这个世界各县市区的汽化绿色气运输车运输。
近几月来，海外对南美洲大自然气制造信息的不敲相关性对TTF报价形成了很大作用。南美洲销售市场对大自然气制造信息转变的丝毫趋势的作用还是会愈来愈剧烈。在下该图，当冒出新的光于北溪一号的新闻事件和通知公告，举列国家政策转变和功率拍买成果等，报价总会有一些价格波动。
数据表格 7 – 北溪十二号相关的新闻和发布公告对的价格的决定
荷兰具有气的生产：
法国地方当然气产销量即使回落，进步骤日益突出了TTF市场价的上涨重压。自 2018 年 1 月十八大以来，法国地方一天当然气产销量从一般 2.8亿降下来1.1亿万立米。伴随能量改革创新的目的开始肯定好，没了征兆体现了欧盟成员国地方将下大力开拓国内的的一周。方便平稳可靠市场价，法国地方所需遇到一个方案已能保证更大的当然气的平稳可靠制造，而在这不肯定好的阶段，形式即使可算明媚。
数据表格 8 - 澳洲天然冰气加工
主耍结果
选择 RBAC的G2M2®全.球自然气进行分析进行分析操作系统为几种夏天情況下养成不相同场地，我们都看到半个些关键目的，在充分考虑以后春季市场的的大致时，需要类推评估报告。
• 与日常一般，的天气是比较大的未知的数和的风险中的一种。
• 采取日前世界大自然气市場的紧缺管理状况，北半球任何的大一些的市場（韩国、欧洲各国或亞洲）的秋冬都比普通阴冷，这将引发常见联络线价格多少进步骤提高，常见大自然气市場应该会在秋冬遇到短期贷款安全隐患。
• 若是2021年寒冬出现异常极冷，意愿量将升幅增大，区内的断掉电源也许是不容解决的。
不仅如此，会因为世界各地必须要 更长的准确时光来补点其楼顶储气的交易量，这代表着着中国当然气销售市场的心烦意乱环境将不断地更长的准确时光。
• 中国有、南北美洲等国家的实际需求增长额几率会导致如今市場的紧张感，使得大洋洲和欧洲国家客服抢夺相似的汽化非人工气供气。
• ;荷兰进口货芬兰的管道铺设大自然气流通量将立即获得上限，作用客观因素仍就是北溪三线何時能正式的投建。
• 至于北溪三线，是因为其申請资格身份认证注意装修细节等各种因素，估计发动准确时间已造成有一些卡顿，这热力管网正规工投放操作和现在慢慢工商业流事先的后十步。除另一个装修细节外，申請资格身份认证整个阶段遭受到意大利制载和意大利抵制，况且发动程序耗费长，不了达到在此前的2020年2月1日现在慢慢准确时间。从8月初热力管网运营推广商向国外监管部门学校申诉申請现在慢慢，申請资格身份认证整个阶段估计是需要6-7个月功能成功。在本届探析中的假如是北溪三线于2020年1第二季度末现在慢慢正规工投放民用。
• 另外一个个风险分析是，迟早会投放选择，北溪十二号需什么时间段就可以扩大发货量。迄今截止截止，海外还没有誓言凭借新的平均线路向德国运输什么非液化气。根据种情形，德国入口海外的通风管道非液化气周转量仍将感受到要求。
依据
冷天一直会以这样子或有一种的具体方法补救作用市厂上的切不可预知的症状。 生物质发热能源转化阶段要求不间断扩大和现货供应密集将给一小部分北半球的市厂价分享上下行气压。 运用本深入浅析下列做的市厂上模以，能加快浅析繁多未知假如和情景对话预计，以选择一编比较可信的报告单，要怎样做到正确性的决策制定，体现组织结构的个人制定目标，例如生物质发热能源调整所求的个人制定目标。
RBAC有限企业创始于1982年，关键管理定制规划定制和服务器维护是亚洲地区和空间先天气和汽化石油气先天气领域預测装置，其借助总计学绘图、总得分享、总计学计算方式定制规划定制和大orcale定制几个方面等正规专业常识向再生资源业内有限企业包括密切相关再生资源、交通网和生活环境的区政府医院具备强 的分享的工具。G2M2®亚洲地区先天气預测分享装置™专为亚洲地区先天气领域的溶合定制规划定制方式而定制。它是一种套全面的类别装置，使用于預测亚洲地区先天气领域的先天气和汽化石油气先天气加工、运输业、贮存和购物。欲知晓更好内容，请考察：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
