当我们知道极端分子空气指数查询以至于北美地区先空气指数和输配电行业（举列德克萨斯州）造成频繁塑料系统故障，什么地方的供货、贸易市场需求和报价稳定遭受冲洗，排水管和汽化先空气指数出口商的才能减少在世界十大排名行成了茶叶连锁的反应。 周期性空气指数查询事情，世界十大排名新能源制度因环境改变毛病而造成改变，以至于世界十大排名先空气指数和汽化先空气指数行业充电不确保性。
为了能够对待那些波动，路孚特和 RBAC 将1套最新上线的天气预告查询情境及本身气和液化石油气本身气基础设施选用、新规、费用和自我约束等方面的广泛波动纳为了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®南美洲本身气预测概述概述体系™，争对南美洲本身气行业茶叶市场开展了周全和客观存在的模仿概述。 本该报告全面说了澳大利亚、南美洲和中美洲行业茶叶市场快速波动的gif动态，作用您为将来的任何的风雨飘摇天气预告查询提前做好做准备并渡过困难期。
概述：
今年 冬秋，RBAC和路孚特刚开始协作设计了众多的情况，以陆续来临的2020/202一年夏季的夏天和另外绿色的气销售行业动态化。 这次协作文章发表的绿色的气发展前途带来了工业界的很大程度上青睐，然而2020/202一年的实际情况夏季的不良影响要比推测的的情况多很多。 依据北极圈寒流模仿的报告更严重性，危害力更好 。 储气量被会降低到有风险的低层次，欧洲绿色的气销售专业餐饮市场在202一年更快增温。跟随着2021/明年夏季的靠近，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC发布了202一年欧洲短时间绿色的气和汽化绿色的气销售专业餐饮市场预计，为北半球陆续来临的保暖四季能提供有颜值的参阅。
RBAC 创业的团队进行 G2M2® 设计了总结36 六个月的分析预测，进行贸易股票市场主要面要素和季节太敏单纯思考行政区域贸易股票市场间的互连。该创业的团队进行19种场景设计来风险评估季节对世界十大先天气取舍的影响到，各种亚洲区域、海外和亚洲区域核心区的价。
此贴盼望介绍近日预计的非常重要网站内容，并将近日与19年的分折采取客观性的的相对比较和讲解，借以延长各位对整个市场模以的表达。
亨利港（Henry Hub）价额对液化石油气天然植物气出口国的直接影响
每当而当我们回忆2020-202一年Refinitiv-RBAC中国临时性当然冰气和煤气当然冰气市场中纵览（于2021年110月刊发）时，但其中至关重要的观点还有如下一些角度：
• 夏季市场需求量有已经是亨利港 2020 年第 4 第二第三季度和 2021 年第 1 第二第三季度售价的核心带动要素的一种。荷兰夏季市场需求量强大，有已经会使纯煤气石油气流进国外，而不算是 煤气纯煤气石油气运到在国外。
• 放前 COVID 环境中，加工商将无奈之下在管理方法短时间是加工层面更进一步灵巧，而没有要为控制更积极向上的扩大而用更大現金。
• ;欧州和中国的中国要求都信任于夜化大自然气进口的，但对板块价额的影响力不同于。
然而 与真正症状比起其科学研究的20个时候场景设计（给出上去20年的数据源）中缺同比下跌的症状。基于三维模型的比如不能极端化，时未带动诞生G2M2®全球最大天然冰气預測探讨的现货交易定价爆涨、需要量冲撞和出售缩短，以类似真正产生的冬春时候的条件。
2021 年 2 月，中美洲的具体情况更是要格外重视是这样的（请参阅下面的图，请目光右上图的纵座标轴的售价是左上图的两倍）。去年同期意见书中采用的前景、统计数据和养成先决条件失败加以考量中美洲最主要的种植区功率和非人工气管道工程的越冬预备缺陷甚至就此对夜化非人工气出来构成导致的内部错误基本要素。
统计图1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）单价和美式液化石油气天然植物气出口额预估
数据图表 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利枢纽站费用和法国夜化天然冰气外贸出口预计
该深入分析的2021-明年构想屏幕上显示，明年亨利港的年差不多价钱飙升至5.50人民币/MmBtu控制，而18年的意见书为3.50人民币/MmBtu。 凡此种种，与18年的精准预测相对来说，在今年美利坚煤气绿色气出口值预估行驶非常接近100%的产能利用率。
通常状态下判定，发生变化（国外）国外非人工气定价的提高，夜化非人工气进口商将限制，正能够国外贸易卖场将生成大些的毛利率升值空间。 所以，状态未必是即使，正能够全国非人工气和夜化非人工气定价暴涨，生产成本上升，同一欧州秋冬季迎来之余，贮存级别远低于正常的级别，以至于欧州贸易卖场的毛利率空间能够会大些。
中国具有气和煤气具有气价位
是由于全世界厂家直销局限以后不良影响先时候和汽化石油气先时候市场的，对于便用G2M2®的不同时候前景，该通知单預测出美利坚共和国汽化石油气先时候出口贸易的单价差不低于5加元/MMBtu。
统计图表3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的市场价格
欧州天然冰气的市场 - TTF 价位动力问题
非洲内存：
如果是在冬日或出错秋季高温的秋季，拉丁美洲其他国家的储气库货存总是对总的来说都比较安全稳定。或许，创紀錄低值的拉丁美洲其他国家大北部地区地下层储存货存给TTF价值造成 了惊人的上行下行经济压力。 过去的的英文 5 半年度，从 NWE 储存的冬日导入的先空气指数量从 2018-19 年和气冬日的 210 TWh 大幅度的转到 2017-18 年相当很冷的冬日的 400 TWh。2020/202半年冬日相当正常值空气指数状态，但储存总体水平减少了380 TWh。
数据表格 4 - 英国数据库库存盘点含量
2020/202在整年季节，犹豫亞洲所需在异常处理湿冷的季节增高，煤气石油气本身气原装原装进口产生缩短，以至于煤气石油气本身气原装原装消费量高过顺利横向。煤气石油气本身气的发送邮件量为20Bcm（220 TWh），高出前整年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 月底，美国文件存储库存积压为 160 TWh 或出水量的 30%，为前往 5 年（2016-2020 年）的很低的程度，显著超过 64% 的十年月均的程度。同一在今年注气廷迟了整整个月大。知道2月才慢慢注气，而从历史长河上看，注气是在4四月慢慢的。
图形 5 – 澳大利亚东中部地下商场储气库情形
研究分析精英团队使用的的 G2M2 模式依据 19 种天气预报前景，涉及到许多不一样的要分折。哪些细则的报告单阐明，预测近日秋冬（4月-5月）海外大西东南部约230 TWh的天然水气将被拿掉。
在202四年-2021的秋冬，该仿真模型預测储备技术约为 135 TWh 或储备内存容量的 25%。比起来一下，5年的的差不多数值为35%。预测2021南美洲大西北沿海地区储备库存积压技术将以后不超过5年的差不多技术，终会202四年底才赶到5年的差不多技术。
数据表格 6 - G2M2 非洲存储器库存盘点质量
从乌克兰国外：
一直以来欧洲地区大有些我国都可以充分地做能源技术转型期，但其绿色气市场的仍严重性依靠绿色气和汽化石油气绿色气的进口清关，已够满足中国国内需要量。到欧共体我国的绿色气通常采用乌克兰、瑞典和北非的管道铺设还有来于社会各市区的汽化石油气绿色气运输车输送机。
近几三个月来，美国对荷兰本身气销售的不认确定对TTF多少钱行成了严重直接影响。荷兰领域对本身气销售变的所以的预兆的影响己经是激烈。在下下图，当冒出新的有关的信息北溪2号的恶性事件和公告信息，比如优惠政策变和存储量排卖结杲等，多少钱一般会有些振幅。
统计图表 7 – 北溪一号涉及活动和公司公告对价格的影晌
国外非人工气生产的：
美国自然植物气总产值仍在急剧下降，进一次直接加剧了TTF定价的下行的压力。自 2018 年 1 月今年以来，美国本周自然植物气总产值从最少 2.8亿降为1.六亿万立米。可能生物质能发展的目标值早就判断，未征象是因为欧共体各国将强力定制开发中国国内的一周。要为稳固定价，美国必须要查找另一种步骤已有保障越多的自然植物气的稳固供应信息，而在这不判断的一时期，态势仍要没算静美。
条形图 8 - 德国具有气生产的
最主要分析方法
用到 RBAC的G2M2®世界十大非煤气预估具体测试仪的源于各种各样的天气状况情况报告下模拟机的不同情景，让我们找到了些核心答案，在来考虑中国未来东季市面 的首要时，须得加上监测。
• 与日常类似，夏天是最高的不明数和风险点之五。
• ;因其当下中国具有气行业的坐立不安境况，北半球其它小型行业（俄罗斯、欧洲地区或亞洲）的秋季都比普通 阴冷，这将致使关键联络线市场的价格进三步提高，关键具有气行业应该会在秋季遭遇一年期风险分析。
• 若是2021冻天错误冷，要量将大幅度加强，部位内的没电能够是无法防止出现的。
凡此种种，在在世界各国要有更长的時间来添加其低下储气的交易量，这暗示着欧洲天然冰气市场中的坐立不安的情形将不断更长的時间。
• 中国大、南南美洲等各国的要求涨幅或许会频发近几年销售市场的重要，致使亚洲地区和法国客人争夺战一样的煤气非燃气气动阀门。
• 欧州美国进口乌克兰的水管大自然气数目将仍然遭遇制约，反应情况仍是因为北溪第二线何日能已经动工。
• 光于北溪三线，鉴于其资质实名申请认证程序流程等元素，预测在不了准确时间现在已经出来一系卡顿，这也是水管正规的投身食用和刚刚开使企业流前面的到最后一部。除某个须知外，资质实名申请认证工作面临法国封号和瑞典不赞同，并且不了手读耗费长，不了提供在此前定于的202在一年5月1日刚刚开使准确时间。从-9月初水管产品托管商向华烨安全监管中介机构上交申请注册刚刚开使，资质实名申请认证工作预测在想要6-九个月才华顺利完成。在每次探讨中的选用是北溪三线于明年一、月度末刚刚开使正规的投身商业。
• 另一个个风险控制是，若是投身选用，北溪一号都要数量时也能增大到货量。现今就行，乌克兰没有保障进行新的预测自驾线路向德国推送数量非人工气。依据种实际情况，德国进囗的乌克兰的管网非人工气消耗量仍将深受减少。
报告的格式
夏季一直会以如此一来或这种的模式处里影晌销售专业市场的无可预知的前提。 绿色自然能源变革这段时间内需求分析一下保持提升和批发商紧张怎么办将给这个北半球的产品报价获得上行下行有压力。 利用本探索里面 做的销售专业市场虚拟仿真，能够 加快分析一下各种各样的存在有效市场理论和情况回顾，以制定一产品系列可信度的结果显示，尽量制作出科学合理的决定，推动公司的总体梦想，还有绿色自然能源过渡期时需求的总体梦想。
RBAC集团公司创于于198六年，主耍担负规划制作和保障是世界各国和领域非非绿色植物气使用量和汽化石油气非非绿色植物气使用量市面剖析程序，其使用剖析学制作、剖析剖析、剖析学汉明距离规划制作和参数库制作多方面等正规知识点向生物质能源资源制造业集团公司各类涉及到生物质能源资源、流量和区域的国家装置具备强悍的剖析的生产工具。G2M2®世界各国非非绿色植物气使用量剖析剖析程序™专为世界各国非非绿色植物气使用量市面的构建规划制作规划而制作。它也是套全版的模式程序，适用于剖析世界各国非非绿色植物气使用量市面的非非绿色植物气使用量和汽化石油气非非绿色植物气使用量的生产、运输业、店铺和消耗。欲认知越来越多问题，请登陆：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
